South Africa: ANC’s coalition dilemma
As predicted before the elections, the African National Congress (ANC) has lost its parliamentary majority, securing only 40% of the vote. To govern, it needs a coalition partner or might attempt a minority government. It could partner with the Democratic Alliance (DA), which won 22% but is widely seen as aiming to protect white minority privileges. Alternatively, it could align with Jacob Zuma's uMkhonto weSizwe (MK), which surprised many by gaining 15% of the vote, or Julius Malema's Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF); a third alternative is a government of national unity. Cyril Ramaphosa insists any coalition must respect the current constitution: the ANC, EFF, and MK combined still fall short of the two-thirds majority needed for constitutional changes. The decision about what to do will have a major impact on South Africa, which faces major security and economic challenges.
India: Modi claims victory, but loses overall control
Following the national elections, Narendra Modi is set to lose his parliamentary majority. His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may need to form alliances to retain power. The current poll results suggest that while the BJP will remain the largest party, it might fall short of an outright majority, securing between 230-240 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, the lower house of Parliament. This potential shortfall would force Modi to seek coalition partners to govern effectively - a significant shift from the 2014 and 2019 elections, where the BJP secured decisive victories. Despite his personal popularity, this result might reshape India's political landscape, making governance more complex and coalition-dependent. He will find it challenging to maintain political dominance amid increasing economic and social challenges, including high unemployment and rural distress. Some fears have been expressed about his long-term future, and the Indian stock market has tumbled in value in response.
Mexico: first female president faces daunting task
Claudia Sheinbaum, former mayor of Mexico City, has been elected as Mexico's first female president, with 58% of the vote. This strengthens the Morena party's control, following outgoing president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO). Despite concerns about Sheinbaum’s close ties to AMLO, both have insisted he will not influence her administration. She has committed to addressing Mexico's issues, particularly violence and security; the country is plagued by over 30,000 murders a year. During her tenure as mayor, the homicide rate in the capital dropped by 50%, credited to improved security measures. She plans to continue AMLO's strategy of non-confrontation with crime groups, relying on the national guard for security. Analysts expect Sheinbaum's presidency to be more disciplined and globally aware than AMLO's. However, the challenges she faces were highlighted when a female mayor was shot dead on 4 June.
USA: Trump convicted, but does it matter?
American democracy faces a strange moment as Donald Trump, the leading Republican candidate, has been found guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records. The verdict confirms that he altered financial accounts for his 2016 campaign, marking him as a convict. His murky past now seems to have caught up with him. On the other hand, it could be said that the district attorney, Alvin Bragg, combined tax misdemeanours into an indictment, and Judge Juan Merchan's aggressive behaviour has aroused suspicions. Describing it as a rigged trial, Trump has said, ‘Our country has gone to hell. The real verdict is going to be on 5 November by the people’. Democrats fear he might be right, as previous legal actions have boosted his popularity. His sentence, to be decided on 11 July, coincides with the Republican convention. In November we will find out whether Americans view Trump as a criminal or see Biden and his party as the real culprits.
